In late 2025, Delta revealed intentions to initiate nonstop services between Atlanta (ATL) and Riyadh (RUH), with Delta CEO Ed Bastian recently stating that Saudi Arabia is among his preferred locations that he has visited in quite a while. The airline is collaborating with Riyadh Air, yet it’s clear that the company is pursuing subsidies since Saudi Arabia is compensating airlines to operate flights to Riyadh.
With this route anticipated to commence in approximately three months, an intriguing question arises — will Delta genuinely proceed with this service, or will the launch be postponed?
Delta flights to Riyadh are vacant, vacant, vacant
OMAAT reader Matt points to a post by Enilria, which shares some interesting insights. Delta officials recently stated that the airline’s long-haul operations are usually 50-60% booked 90 days prior to departure.
We are now nearing 90 days until the launch of the Atlanta to Riyadh route, so how does the situation look? While load factors before a flight remain inaccessible to the public, we can only refer to seat maps.
Seat maps are never a completely reliable gauge of a flight’s fullness. Nevertheless, they provide a fair insight, especially for an airline that generally doesn’t charge for seat selections (as is mostly true for Delta on long-haul journeys).
Thus, it’s entirely feasible that the number of passengers booked exceeds the number of seats labeled as occupied, but it’s improbable to be significantly more. So, how does the current situation appear? Let’s disregard the October 23 inaugural flight from Atlanta to Riyadh, as it will likely have some press onboard. Following that (the flight does not operate on October 31):
– The October 24 flight indicates five seats as occupied
– The October 25 flight indicates one seat as occupied
– The October 26 flight displays zero seats as occupied
– The October 27 flight displays zero seats as occupied
– The October 28 flight indicates two seats as occupied
– The October 29 flight shows zero seats as occupied
– The October 30 flight shows zero seats as occupied
– The November 1 flight shows zero seats as occupied
By my calculations, there are eight seats assigned on the first eight non-inaugural flights. That averages out to one seat per flight.
Let’s presume that demand for this Riyadh route surges dramatically, increasing by 1000% within the 90 days leading up to travel. Still, that doesn’t appear very promising, does it? 😉
Delta will postpone the launch of this route… right?
It certainly takes time to foster demand in a new long-haul market, so one doesn’t expect a route to be profitable immediately. Nevertheless, there’s a thin line separating a flight that requires some time to develop versus one like this.
Throughout my years of being enthusiastic about monitoring seat maps, I cannot recall ever witnessing a route appear this empty. The operational expenses for this flight will be enormous (given Delta’s labor costs, fuel expenses, etc.), and there’s no economic scenario where this wouldn’t result in substantial losses.
While there is unrest in the Middle East, Riyadh is less affected than cities like Doha and Dubai, given its distance from Iran. If anything, one would think Delta could seize more traffic originating from and going to Saudi Arabia that prefers to avoid routing through airports nearer to Iran, even if they might contemplate connecting.
Now, the unpredictable factor is that Saudi Arabia has implemented the Air Connectivity Program, designed to motivate airlines to fly to Riyadh. Thus, Delta is undoubtedly eyeing a significant volume of subsidies for operating this service. However, are we discussing sufficient subsidies to render an empty flight profitable, or will that not suffice? If it does, I might just consider starting my own airline! 😉
Bottom line
Delta is now about three months away from launching its new route to Saudi Arabia. Delta executives assert long-haul flights are generally 50-60% booked at this stage. In Delta’s Riyadh route case, I observe a total of eight seats assigned across the initial eight flights (excluding the inaugural). This translates to an average of one assigned seat per flight.
Yes, seat maps aren’t a foolproof indicator of flight occupancy, but they provide a decent indication. One might assume the airline would cancel this flight, but with subsidies, it could be feasible to even profit from flying empty aircraft to Riyadh, provided Saudi Arabia covers the costs.
What’s your prediction on Delta launching Riyadh flights versus delaying the service?