For quite some time, it’s been understood that American Airlines is engaged in discussions for a new wide body aircraft acquisition. Although a formal announcement hasn’t yet been made, airline executives have recently been more open about their thoughts, which might not align with common expectations.
In summary, we can anticipate a wide body aircraft order shortly, potentially comprising as many as 65 planes from either Airbus or Boeing, with deliveries slated for the 2030s.
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American seeking wide body aircraft, Airbus and Boeing contenders
Among the “big three” US airlines, American has the most limited long haul network, particularly when excluding Latin America. From my perspective, American primarily focuses on flying to joint venture markets, servicing Latin America, and offering some seasonal summer routes to Europe (admittedly, this oversimplifies the situation, but it conveys the general idea).
This situation has arisen from a mix of strategic missteps (early retirement of Boeing 757s, Boeing 767s, and Airbus A330s) combined with American’s misguided strategy of overly prioritizing domestic flights as part of Vasu Raja’s ambitious El Paso world dominance vision.
Examining American’s wide body fleet, the airline operates 67 Boeing 777s (47 777-200ERs and 20 777-300ERs), alongside 70 Boeing 787s (37 787-8s and 33 787-9s). Currently, American’s outstanding wide body order includes only 19 787-9s, which is relatively few.
American has only 19 additional wide body airplanes on order
For comparison, Delta has 78 wide body planes on order, while United boasts an astonishing 135 wide body planes in the pipeline. Clearly, American is falling further behind regarding its wide body fleet, and considering the substantial lead time required to order new planes, gaining a competitive edge will take time.
Recently, insider JonNYC has detailed that American is poised to place a new wide body aircraft order imminently, possibly with either Airbus or Boeing.
This week, American executives have openly addressed the matter, as reported by FlightGlobal:
– American intends to order up to 65 planes to succeed the current Boeing 777-200ERs; it’s important to note that’s an “up to” figure, which may include firm orders and options
– The airline is currently in the “seventh or eighth inning” of the decision-making process (if you’re unfamiliar with sports terminology, that’s a baseball analogy, and there are nine innings, or so I’m informed) 😉
– These aircraft are anticipated for delivery in the 2030s, which is reasonable, considering the present backlog for popular models from Airbus and Boeing; additionally, American is retrofitting 777-200ERs with upgraded interiors, so they will likely remain in service for years ahead
– The order “could go either way” between Airbus and Boeing, presenting an opportunity for Airbus, especially since American currently operates an all-Boeing wide body fleet
American must replace its Boeing 777-200ERs
What wide body aircraft will American choose?
This is where things become intriguing. Ultimately, there are four wide body aircraft families available — the A330neo, A350, 777X, and 787. Which ones might American opt for?
An essential aspect to bear in mind is that American executives have expressed a clear preference against very high capacity long haul aircraft. They have reiterated this stance multiple times, and notably, if United struggles to successfully utilize a next generation aircraft larger than the 787-10, given its extensive global network, then it stands to reason that American would face similar challenges. Thus, I consider the 777X and A350 as highly improbable choices:
– It would be surprising if American opts for the 777X, despite recent rumors; the aircraft hasn’t received certification yet, and it would be “too much aircraft” for American, especially as the airline shifts its focus towards smaller capacity models
– Similarly, I do not foresee American ordering the A350; both variants exceed the size of American’s 787-9s, the aircraft is costly, and there is significant demand for it
This leaves us with the 787 and A330neo. Logically, one might think American would continue expanding its 787 fleet, even ordering the 787-10, the largest variant of the aircraft. That appears to be the most sensible option — it offers higher capacity, exceptional fuel efficiency, and impressive economics per seat. For that