Although there are more uncertainties than certainties at this point, it appears more probable that American Airlines will soon place an order for wide body aircraft. Nonetheless, the airline may not opt for the expected choice.
American may choose Airbus or Boeing wide body jets
Among the “big three” U.S. airlines, American stands out with the least robust long haul network, particularly when excluding Latin America. From my perspective, American appears to focus its long haul flights mainly on joint venture markets, targeting Latin America, and engaging in some seasonal summer routes to Europe (admittedly, that’s a simplified view, but the essence remains).
I believe we’ve arrived at this juncture due to a mix of strategic missteps (retiring the Boeing 757s, Boeing 767s, and Airbus A330s prematurely) alongside American’s unsuccessful strategy of concentrating too much on domestic flights, as part of Vasu Raja’s ambitious El Paso global strategy.
Examining American’s wide body fleet, the airline operates 67 Boeing 777s (47 777-200ERs and 20 777-300ERs), along with 70 Boeing 787s (37 787-8s, 33 787-9s). Presently, American’s remaining wide body orders consist of only 19 787-9s, which isn’t a significant number of aircraft.
In comparison, Delta has 78 wide body aircraft on order, while United boasts an astonishing 135 wide body aircraft on order. Thus, American is indeed falling behind in its wide body fleet, and with the need for substantial lead time for aircraft orders, boosting competitiveness will take significant time.
This leads us to the latest speculation, shared by JonNYC. He notes that American may soon be preparing to place a new order for wide body aircraft, which could potentially be with either Airbus or Boeing. To clarify, this revelation isn’t entirely surprising, as we’ve somewhat anticipated this outcome. However, what intrigues me is the possibility of selecting between Airbus and Boeing aircraft.
Which wide body aircraft is American likely to choose?
This is where it becomes intriguing. Ultimately, four wide body aircraft families are available — the A330neo, A350, 777X, and 787. Which ones might American consider ordering?
A key point to keep in mind is that American executives are not keen on very high-capacity long haul aircraft. They have articulated this consistently, and if United struggles to make a next generation aircraft larger than the 787-10 effective despite its extensive global network, then American will surely face similar challenges. Therefore, I would discard the 777X and A350 from consideration:
- There’s no possibility of American ordering the 777X; the aircraft isn’t even certified, and it’s simply “too much aircraft” for American.
- I also don’t foresee American ordering the A350; both variants exceed the size of American’s 787-9s, the aircraft is costly, and there is substantial demand for it.
This narrows down the options to the 787 and A330neo. Logically, one might assume that American would continue to expand its 787 fleet and even place an order for the 787-10, the largest variant of the aircraft. That seems to be the rational choice — it offers greater capacity, exceptional fuel efficiency, and outstanding per-seat economics. Moreover, American will eventually need to replace its aging 777-300ERs, and the airline isn’t fully utilizing the range of those aircraft.
The downside is that the 787 comes with a hefty price tag, and there’s an extensive wait for delivery. For instance, Delta recently ordered the 787-10, with the first delivery not set until 2031.
This brings attention to the A330neo, which might seem like an unexpected choice for American to make, yet I increasingly believe that this could become a viable option. Compared to the 787, the aircraft is slightly less expensive, a bit smaller, and can also be ordered with shorter lead times.
While it may appear as a wild card, it seems to me the most probable choice for American if it decides against the 787.
It is truly astonishing how much financial resource American has squandered on its long haul fleet strategy. American retired its entire ex-US Airways A330 fleet at the onset of the pandemic, despite those aircraft being largely