Why do there appear to be numerous flight deals in 2024? – The Points Guy

From “revenge travel” to the “sold-out summer,” various terms have emerged to describe the travel boom that has extended over several summers.

However, could 2024 mark the “comeback of affordable airfares?”

It’s still early to confirm, but following extremely high fares over the past two summers, it appears that travelers may find more deals available in the latter half of 2024.

Just to clarify, the crowds at airports haven’t decreased at all; in fact, they are already breaking records. However, unlike in 2022 and 2023, we have observed a pleasant surprise: Genuine flight deals are emerging, and you can take advantage of them by paying in cash or, in some instances, by using your miles.

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Finding cheap summer flights

Recently, TPG highlighted an opportunity for 50,000-mile business-class award flights to Europe through KLM. We also covered Southwest Airlines’ special offer of a Companion Pass for travelers who booked a flight to Hawaii. Last week, we noted round-trip fares to Europe for under $400, in addition to late-summer and early-fall deals to destinations like Belize, Italy, and Spain.

Recently, newcomer Breeze Airways marked its third anniversary by offering a 33% discount on fares for a limited period.

“There are undoubtedly more offers this year,” stated Tim Qin, founder of Roame.travel, a service that aids users in finding the best flight mileage redemptions. “Flying Blue, Air France, and KLM effectively unlocked their entire award calendar a month ago. Delta recently introduced some highly discounted 135,000 SkyMiles redemptions for Delta One [Suites] to Seoul last week; such a price for Delta One is exceptionally low.”

Few travelers are expressing dissatisfaction, particularly as persistent inflation remains a significant burden on many people’s finances.

Even so, following two summers where award space and affordable flights were quite hard to come by, it’s reasonable to wonder: What is driving this more favorable trend for consumers? And, crucially, will it continue?

Supply and demand

Discounted airfares usually indicate unsold seats. Similar to how a clothing store will reduce prices on unsold shirts, airlines decrease ticket prices to attract passengers to book available seats. Operating flights with empty seats is among the quickest ways for an airline to incur losses due to the fuel costs involved.

This is why ticket prices were so low during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic and why Tuesdays and Wednesdays are frequently the most affordable days to travel by air — there is less demand.

However, that is exactly what makes these recent airfare deals both surprising and refreshing for travelers.

An unprecedented number of travelers went through TSA checkpoints on the Friday of Memorial Day weekend. This past Sunday (June 9) marked the second highest day in terms of traffic.

Overall, seven out of the ten busiest travel days ever recorded at TSA checkpoints happened in the past month, and this number is expected to increase as summer progresses.

Finding deals is easier this year

Although the crowds persist, the deals continue to emerge.

“We have observed a rise in occasional, last-minute offers from particular carriers over the past month,” said Katy Nastro, the spokesperson for the budget flight authority Going.

This includes flights to Europe. Going has monitored the latest round of late-summer deals to Europe, spanning both major hubs and smaller cities, as noted by Daniel Burnham, Nastro’s colleague, and Going’s product operations manager and flight expert.

“Burnham mentioned that even from smaller, regional U.S. airports, numerous European destinations have set fares in the $400 to $500 range, including during peak months like July.”

In the domestic market, numerous round-trip flights are priced below $140, even during peak times such as the week of the Fourth of July, he mentioned.

“People who tend to procrastinate are finding themselves luckier this year,” Burnham mentioned.

FCM and Corporate Travel, prominent business travel companies, analyzed a sample of corporate bookings from June, July, and August. They discovered that domestic fares decreased by up to 25% compared to the same period the previous year.

In foreign countries, certain airlines have recently observed that prices are stabilizing or even decreasing.

No matter how you look at it, it definitely appears that the fare situation is now more advantageous for customers compared to a year or two ago.

What is the reason for these bargains?

What prompted the recent sales? Formulating theories wouldn’t be difficult.

Is this the anticipated decline in consumer spending that has been frequently predicted, potentially signaling a decrease in future travel demand?

From January to May, the average household spending on travel using credit and debit cards decreased compared to the same period last year, as reported by Bank of America. Nevertheless, this decline was slight, at just 1.5%.

“Consumer confidence is showing a modest increase. It went up in May following three months of decline,” stated Riley Dugan, an associate professor at the University of Dayton’s School of Business Administration in Ohio. “This is a positive sign regarding travel trends.”

Many U.S. airlines have reported dismal performance on their recent earnings calls, except for Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, which have achieved notable profitability. However, a report from data firm Melius Research this week suggests that this isn’t due to a lack of customer demand. The report highlights a continued “insatiable travel demand” from consumers.

Instead, the findings highlighted an issue that multiple airlines have lamented for months: fierce competition.

So many seats

According to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium, the total number of seats on domestic flights in the U.S. for June, July, and August will increase by 5% compared to last year. This represents a slight rise from the previous year. When compared to 2022, the number of seats has risen by a more substantial 14%. In comparison to ten years ago, the increase is nearly 30%.

To put it differently, airlines have close to 30% more seats to occupy this summer compared to the summer of 2014 — and this is only for domestic flights.

The airspace between North America and Europe has also become more crowded. This summer, the number of transatlantic seats has increased by 8.5% compared to last year and almost 6% compared to pre-pandemic levels, according to Cirium.

This has resulted in intense competition for seat occupancy, especially within domestic markets. Additionally, several airlines have recently restructured their networks and altered their strategies in an attempt to increase profitability.

According to a report by TPG in March, Frontier Airlines has scaled down its operations in highly competitive and oversaturated markets such as Orlando and Las Vegas.

Southwest has reduced its expansion pace, and JetBlue is scaling back in certain cities while increasing its focus on others, such as San Juan, Puerto Rico.

American Airlines’ recent financial challenges stem from its own internal issues with managing corporate travel and third-party reservations. Additionally, the airline claims it has been impacted by a competitive market that has lowered fare prices.

“There is more discounting activity now compared to a year ago,” stated Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines Group, at a Wall Street event late last month.

Will it last?

It’s definitely possible that the pricing environment might change.

Airlines encounter various difficulties that might push prices higher once more. Expenses for labor have increased. Fuel costs have been a significant obstacle for carriers in the past few years.

The sector is facing challenges due to delays in the supply chain, production issues at Boeing, and a problem with the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine that might result in hundreds of aircraft being grounded for extended maintenance periods in the years ahead.

This week, the International Air Transport Association cautioned that these factors (among others) might result in increased fares in the future.

Competition benefitting consumers

Meanwhile, although airlines have struggled to fill seats, this situation has led to a more favorable pricing environment for consumers.

Certainly, on any particular day when you’re looking for a flight, you might still experience sticker shock; prices haven’t decreased to the point where you’re assured of finding a bargain.

However, if you visit Google Flights, you’ll find that securing a deal is noticeably simpler than it was at this point last year — or the year before.

What do you think about taking a weekend trip in July from New York City to New Orleans? The cost is $160 on Delta.

A week in Paris in August following the conclusion of the 2024 Olympics? That will cost $491 for a round-trip ticket.

Here’s a $555 round-trip ticket from Boston to London available for late summer.

I completed all those searches in just a few seconds.

Using miles is also an option.

Qin, from Roame.travel, has recently monitored some “highly specific” award deals.

“For instance, Virgin Atlantic offered a 50% discount on points redemption a few months back. Following that, they provided a 30% bonus on transfers from Capital One, American Express, and Chase, with all these promotions overlapping at one time,” he remembered.

Another?

“ANA and Japan Airlines offered a broad range of business- and first-class saver fares available for partner award redemptions throughout the award calendar,” Qin mentioned. “It appears that [airlines] have more available seats to allocate for award bookings.”

Ways to locate the most affordable flights for 2024

Here are some of the top strategies to make the most out of the present airfare situation if you’re planning a trip in the upcoming months.

Aim for August

In the past, September and October have consistently offered some of the best opportunities for finding affordable airfare, coinciding with the end of summer break and the resumption of school. This trend is likely to continue this year as well.

Nonetheless, consider the possibility of a late-summer trip in August.

Airlines have observed that many school districts are resuming classes increasingly earlier. According to Delta president Glen Hauenstein, speaking to analysts in April, this trend has moved the traditional summer “peak” to a much earlier date on the calendar.

Southwest’s chief commercial officer, Ryan Green, mentioned last October that in our markets, a third of the schools had resumed classes by the second week of August. He also highlighted that these figures were “almost twice as high as they were before the pandemic.”

Utilize Google Flights to find the most advantageous offer.

Regarding Southwest Airlines, the Dallas-headquartered airline is at last listing its fares on Google Flights. This move, together with recent modifications in Frontier’s price presentation, is expected to enhance the platform’s effectiveness for direct fare comparisons, aiding in the search for the most economical options.

Make sure to book directly with the airline after selecting your desired itinerary.

Verify cash and miles

Think about all of your alternatives. Even if you intended to use miles for a late-summer journey to Europe, paying $450 in cash might be worthwhile.

TPG’s awards versus cash calculator assists you in making the optimal choice.

You can also consider using your miles to upgrade your economy ticket to a lie-flat business-class seat, for instance. Alternatively, you might use them to start planning a holiday or winter trip.

Make sure to remember international airlines.

Avoid depending solely on U.S. airline loyalty programs. Numerous excellent transfer options for your flexible credit card points exist, such as Air France and KLM’s Flying Blue, Avianca’s LifeMiles, and the Avios currency used by British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, and Qatar Airways, to name a few.

Looking to score a bunch of points for your late-summer or fall getaway? Check out some of the top credit card sign-up bonuses available this month.

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